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NZ4O Medium Frequency (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-23


Thomas F. Giella <thomasfgiella@...>
 

NZ4O Medium Frequency (300-3000 KC) Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-23
A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams As Well As Shortwave Radio DXers And Listeners



Published on Friday Jun 01, 2012 at 0000 UTC. Valid 0000 UTC Saturday Jun 02, 2012 through 2359 UTC Friday Jun 08, 2012.



The NZ4O "Complete" MF/HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast can be found at http://www.solarcycle24.org , http://www.wcflunatall.com/propagation.htm and http://www.facebook.com/pages/SolarCycle24org/139198369462931 .


Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays.

There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4.

For more information on MF radiowave propagation theory check out http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm .



GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND AND 160 METERS-

Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV (10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.

Magnetic Equator-

Low 0-25 degrees

Mid 25-60 degrees

High 60-90 degrees

http://www.wcflunatall.com/geomagneticequator.gif

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-




East <-> West To 1100 mi/1800 km-Fair

North <-> South To 1100 mi/1800 km- Poor To Fair

South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair To Poor

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-

East <-> West To 1100 mi/1800 km-Fair To Good

North <-> South To 1100 mi/1800 km- Fair To Good

South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km- Fair To Good

Forecasted Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km



High Latitude- Poor

Mid Latitude- Fair

Low Latitude- Poor



Forecasted Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in

excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km



High Latitude- Fair

Mid Latitude- Fair To Good

Low Latitude- Fair



HF Propagation Forecast Scale-
Excellent S9+1 Or Better
Good S7-S9
Fair S4-S6
Poor S1-S3
None S0


FORECASTED GLOBAL LIGHTNING NOISE (QRN)-

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity

to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low

pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.



Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.



Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season

proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.



Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

Very High >+1 db Over S9

High- S7-9

Moderate- S4-6

Low- S1-3

None- S0



Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my radiowave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
thomasfgiella@...



NZ4O Amateur & SWL Radio Autobiography: http://www.nz4o.com
NZ4O MF/HF/6M (600-6 Meters) Radiowave Propagation Forecast: http://www.solarcycle24.org
Harmful Man Induced (Anthropogenic) Climate Change (Global Warming) Refuted: http://www.globalwarminglie.org





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